Book Online or Call: 888-Travelocity
| Guides & Advice : Traveler Advice : Tips & Advice Home : Travel Industry & Online Travel |
|
Travel Forecast for 2005 By Amy Ziff, Editor-at-Large
January 2005
How can that be, you might ask, given the fact that so many carriers are in or on the verge of bankruptcy--with one or two maybe even on the brink of liquidation? That’s a fair question. The irony is that it’s in part because of the airlines’ precarious finances that I predict this is their year.
Despite the industry’s woes, air travel really, ahem, took off last year. 2004 will go down as the biggest year ever for air travel. One reason is that people love a bargain, and in 2004 prices were down, leading many who would otherwise have stayed home to take to the skies. I think we can safely expect more of the same in 2005. Despite record numbers of passengers, airline performance actually held up pretty well last year. The airlines even improved their overall performance ratings over their financial heyday. Sure there were some isolated snafus like the hideous end-of-the-year baggage delays at US Airways. But a week later they turned their troubles into teamwork, making their baggage problems an opportunity for senior management to go out into the field and support other workers by serving coffee and snacks. They literally lent a hand and made sure that travelers’ luggage got where it needed to go.
While the airlines will continue to have their financial problems, those problems will actually benefit you, as each airline competes even harder for your business. One thing I know we'll see more of are lower fares. Delta is out to prove it--they're the first major carrier to announce a nationwide low-fare plan. It’s based on their SimpliFares plan, launched in Cincinnati last summer, capping domestic flights at $499 one-way for a coach ticket and $599 for first class. In addition to simplifying the fares, Delta is also easing restrictions, doing away with the Saturday-night-stay requirement, and cutting the ticket change fee from $100 to $50.
Those low prices--driven down by pressure from the low-cost carriers who are more nimble and fly fewer routes--are revolutionizing the aviation industry as we've known it. Low-cost carriers focus on what they do well and have proven to the bigger airlines that it is possible for an airline to be profitable. They've even shown us that flying can be a fun and enjoyable experience for the masses. Prices in markets where there is low-fare competition will remain low. And those markets will be ever-expanding. Look to the sun--I think the waters of the Caribbean will beckon this year.
By the way, if you’re worried about airline insolvency, don’t let that fear keep you from traveling. Certainly there will be continued talk of bankruptcy and we're likely to see consolidation and even liquidation. But even if one of the airlines does go under, there are laws in place to protect you, and to ensure that you get where you are going with at most a modest ticket-changing fee.
As most people dive into 2005 headfirst with a to-do list as long as their arm, I say don't forget to be grateful for what you can count on and what you can realistically do in this new year. Whatever else is ahead, I know we will continue to see (and enjoy!) low airfares to places around this country. I say, don't look a gift horse in the mouth--make your year about travel.
For the most recent travel news check out Amy Ziff's Travel Tips from AtoZ at www.travelocity.com/atoz. If you have a question or topic you would like me to cover in a future column, please e-mail Amy Ziff at ask.amy@travelocity.com. Come back monthly to see if your question has been answered.
|
|